Hiddush poll ahead of the September 17th elections:
64% Israeli Jews want broad civil coalition, without Haredi parties
53% say they are more likely to vote for a party that commits to promote religious freedom and equality of civic burden. 66% say that it is important for them that the party they will vote for advance these values.
05/09/2019 11:02
Tags: Hiddush polls · 2019 elections · coalition
Two weeks before the election, Hiddush - For Religious Freedom and Equality released a survey, conducted by the Smith Polling Institute, demonstrating that issues of religion and state may decide the fate of the Knesset elections and the composition of the next government. The survey clearly underscores the importance of religious freedom and equality of the civic burden for undecided voters.
According to survey data, 64% of Israel’s adult Jewish public supports the next government coalition not including ultra-Orthodox parties. Only 36% were opposed to this. This support is shared across the political spectrum: 90% of Blue-&-White voters, 94% of Yisrael Beiteinu voters, and 93% of Democratic Camp voters, as well as 51% of Likud voters! Among undecided voters, 75% support the establishment of a government coalition without the ultra-Orthodox parties.
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Hiddush has been surveying this question for years, in slightly different formulations but with the same conclusions. In all the years since 2013 and in all the surveys, 64-66% of Israel’s adult Jewish public responded thus. There is no doubt that the Government’s ignoring of the public’s will and the ever-increasing demands of the ultra-Orthodox parties have built up public frustration and pressure. This includes matters of legislation, budgeting, gender inclusion and exclusion, blue laws and prohibition of public transportation on the Sabbath, IDF draft dodging, the mass denial of the right to marriage and the suffering of women at the hands of the rabbinical courts, discrimination against LGBTQ, the exclusivity of Orthodox state-recognized conversions and the harm caused thereby to pluralistic world Jewry, and more. The public is increasingly willing to vote for civil parties that will show courage and loyalty to their voters and stop the government’s perpetual surrender to the ultra-Orthodox parties. The survey thus shows that for 53% of the public, the likelihood that they would vote for a party committed to the values of religious freedom and equality is higher, while only 26% responded that it would decrease the likelihood of their voting for such party.
Israel may be facing a revolution in the composition of the government coalition, which will herald a new era of religious freedom and equality in shouldering the civic burden. This is the will of the majority of the public.
The question was: "If a party that aligns with your political outlook on security and economic issues announces that it is committed to the principles of religious freedom and equality [such as public transportation on the Sabbath, the IDF draft of Yeshiva students, instituting civil marriage and divorce, preventing the exclusion of women, and other such issues], and will work to advance them in the Knesset and in the government if it joins the government coalition – would this increase or decrease the likelihood of your voting for this party in the upcoming elections?"
As mentioned, among those who expressed their opinions (89% of respondents), 53% responded that this would increase the likelihood that they would vote for this party. This approach is particularly characteristic of the secular public [74%] and the "traditional not so religious" public [70%]. 26% responded that this would decrease the likelihood, and 21% responded that it would not make a difference. This may explain the change in the direction of the Blue-&-White campaign in recent days, after a prolonged period of refusing to take a clear and determined stance on religious freedom and equality of the civic burden. These demographic groups make up 66% of the adult Jewish public, as well as representing 95% of Blue & White voters in the April elections. [70% defined themselves as secular and 25% - "traditional not so religious"].
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This figure parallels and corresponds to the answer given by the representative sample to the question: "How important is it for the party that you vote for in the elections to fight in the Knesset to advance religious freedom and equality of the civic burden?" In response to this question 66% said that this is very important to them [40%] or quite important [26%]. 34% responded that this is not so important to them [12%] or not important [22%]. Most of the secular public felt that it was important [87%], as did the “traditional not so religious" public [74%]. This was also the response of 91% of those who intend to vote for Blue-&-White, 100% - The Democratic Camp party, 96% - Yisrael Beiteinu, 54% - Likud, and 78% of undecided voters.
Click HERE for FULL SIZE graph
Israel may be facing a revolution in the composition of the government coalition, which will herald a new era of religious freedom and equality in shouldering the civic burden. This is the will of the majority of the public, as we've seen in the series of surveys published by Hiddush since January. The clear majority of the public supports a broad civil coalition, based upon a union between the Likud and Blue-&-White, which will not depend on the ultra-Orthodox parties and which will promote the fulfillment of the promise of Israel’s Declaration of Independence for religious freedom and equality. Avigdor Lieberman's change of direction, which may be the key to forming the next Government, as well as that of Blue & White’s campaign shift in recent days, emerge as thoughtful and strategic moves that reflect the public's long-held desire for a government coalition that does not operate under the thumbs of the religious parties and does not violate the most basic values of democracy, human dignity and individual liberties.
The survey was conducted by the Smith Polling Institute between August 6 and 11 among 753 people as a representative sample of the adult Jewish population in Israel (ages 18 and older). Sampling error - ± 3.6%