Prepare for the return of the ultra-Orthodox parties

Money will simply flow to religious institutions close to the ultra-Orthodox parties

A simple analysis shows that the only significant change between the current government and the next one will be a replacement of the center-right government by a government comprising the right and the ultra-Orthodox parties. The centrist Yesh Atid party, led by former Finance Minister Yair Lapid, and the small HaTenua party led by former Justice Minister Tzipi Livni, will be replaced by the United Torah Judaism party and Shas.

Shahar Ilan 11/12/2014 12:01

Tags: Shas ·  United Torah Judaism ·  elections ·  coalition

It is the accepted convention in Israel, that the opposition should always strive to overthrow the government and bring about early elections. This is part of the opposition’s pretense that it will be the one to form a new government in place of the one it topples. Thus it happened that the Labor and Meretz parties supported early elections in stark contrast to their interests and even though there is no way Labor will set up the next government.

In fact, not only will nothing good come out of these elections for the Israeli left and center, their positions will actually be harmed. A simple analysis shows that the only significant change between the current government and the next one will be a replacement of the center-right government by a government comprising the right and the ultra-Orthodox parties. The centrist Yesh Atid party, led by former Finance Minister Yair Lapid, and the small HaTenua party led by former Justice Minister Tzipi Livni, will be replaced by the United Torah Judaism party (an Ashkenazi, ultra-Orthodox party) and Shas (a Sephardi ultra-Orthodox party).

There will thus be no change in the stalled peace process with the Palestinians and funding allocations for the West Bank settlements will also not end. Money will simply flow, as well, to religious seminaries and religious institutions close to the ultra-Orthodox parties, just as in the days of the ultra-Orthodox-rightwing government that was in power until the January 2013 elections.

Even with the configuration of the Knesset that dissolved itself on Monday, there was no real possibility of a center-left government simply because the anti-clerical Lapid and the religious parties would not agree to join together in one government, nor would the right-wing parties agree to participate in a government with the leftist Meretz party. This situation will certainly not be reversed by the March 17 elections. Even the polls indicating that a joint Labor party run with HaTenua will generate 24 seats (out of 120) show that such a union will weaken other parties in the center and on the left.

The center and the left have been shrinking for years. This is both because of the Israeli public's loss of confidence in the peace process and because of Israel's demographic changes (mainly the much higher birth rate among religious and ultra-Orthodox Israelis, whose political leanings tend to the right. So, there does not seem to be a way for the center and left bloc to attract additional voters.

The current government, which does not include the religious parties, was established only because of the significant voter support for Lapid in the last elections. But in the two years since then, relations between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Likud and Lapid deteriorated to such an extent that Netanyahu was willing to go to the polls only to oust Lapid from government. One doesn't have to be a political forecaster to assume that Netanyahu will do everything in his power after the elections to restore to himself the cozy embrace of the ultra-Orthodox and right-wing parties.

The current government, which does not include the religious parties, was established only because of the significant voter support for Lapid in the last elections. But in the two years since then, relations between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Likud and Lapid deteriorated to such an extent that Netanyahu was willing to go to the polls only to oust Lapid from government. One doesn't have to be a political forecaster to assume that Netanyahu will do everything in his power after the elections to restore to himself the cozy embrace of the ultra-Orthodox and right-wing parties.

So one can certainly argue that it's important to have a rational government with policies that do not fan Arab antagonism. It will be argued (in my opinion short-sightedly) that it's even worth forming a very unholy alliance between left-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties. Such an alliance would entail budgetary outlays for the ultra-Orthodox and religious coercion. But given the political power relations, such a scenario is highly unlikely. Netanyahu is likely to remain prime minister, and a different prime minister is also likely to be a right-winger.

What else will happen? A representative of the Torah Judaism party, probably Knesset member Moshe Gafni, will return to head the Knesset Finance Committee. Research conducted by Hiddush, an NGO advocating religious freedom and equality, shows that Gafni took advantage of his previous term on the Committee to transfer about one billion shekels ($250 million) a year beyond the approved budget to religious institutions. This time there is also a distinct possibility that Shas chairman Aryeh Deri will once again be appointed minister of interior, after serving a jail term for bribery.

The next government is not expected to be more generous in social benefits nor to reduce the cost of living for the poor and the middle class. The next Knesset will also have an overwhelming majority of lawmakers who hold Republican-type economic views like those of Netanyahu and of Jewish Home party leader, Naftali Bennett. Anyone who thinks that former communications and welfare minister Moshe Kahlon, who is expected to form a new party and to run on a social platform, will get enough votes to form a government with the center and the left, is deluding himself. Anyone who thinks that Kahlon, who will compete for the votes of Likud, Jewish Home and Shas constituencies, can afford not to join a right-wing coalition government, is deluding himself even more.

Does this mean that from now on Israel is condemned to right wing rule? Not necessarily. But it seems the most likely way and perhaps almost the only way to a center-left government, is the one outlined by the late Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, who left the Likud and established together with Shimon Peres the centrist party, Kadima. In other words, a move by a large contingent of right-wing politicians from the right to the center. In the upcoming elections, this will probably never happen.